The latest global coffee price
The global price of Robusta coffee
The global price of Arabica coffee
Global coffee price review
Global Coffee Price Analysis
An analysis of coffee market trading over the past month shows that Arabica prices fluctuated within a broad range, from approximately $3.78 to $2.80 per pound, ending the month near the lower end of this range. This volatility highlights the market’s sensitivity to crop and weather-related developments in Brazil. Over the same period, Robusta prices showed comparatively lower volatility, trading largely within the range of $3,300 to $3,600 per metric ton.
The difference in volatility between the two coffee types reflects structural differences in their supply chains. Arabica, which is predominantly cultivated at higher elevations and in regions more exposed to frost risk, is considerably more vulnerable to weather-related supply shocks than Robusta, which is generally grown in warmer, lower-altitude regions and has greater tolerance to environmental stress.
Comparison of Arabica coffee price to Robusta coffee price globally
One of the key indicators used to assess conditions in the coffee market is the price differential between its two main commercial species, Arabica and Robusta. Based on current market prices, Arabica is trading at approximately $6.19 per kilogram, compared with around $3.35 per kilogram for Robusta. This means that Arabica is currently trading at a premium of approximately 85% over Robusta.
This differential, commonly referred to as the Arabica premium, remains elevated but has not reached historical extremes observed during periods of severe Arabica supply shortages, when the price ratio has exceeded 2:1. The relative stability of the differential over the past month, despite declines in both markets, suggests that the recent price correction has been driven more by improving supply expectations than by a shift in demand between the two coffee species.
Global Coffee Price Outlook
Market trends indicate that coffee is currently in a corrective phase. Following the sharp decline in September, there is no clear signal yet indicating either a sustained further decline or a decisive return to an upward trend.
Key factors likely to influence prices in the short term include weather conditions in major growing regions of Brazil and Vietnam, particularly pre-flowering rainfall in Brazil; export volumes recorded at major ports; certified stocks held in ICE warehouses; and trading activity in the futures markets.
Given these factors, the most likely short-term scenario is continued consolidation around current price levels accompanied by volatility, unless a new supply- or demand-side shock emerges. Potential supply shocks could include drought or frost events, while significant changes in consumption or purchasing activity could alter the demand outlook.
Data Source and Methodology of This Report
This analysis was prepared by the Raw Materials Supply Team at Samt O Soye Atieh (SOSA), a company active in the supply of green coffee beans and raw materials for the food industry.
The price data presented in this report are based on coffee futures contracts traded on the ICE markets in New York and London, together with the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator. Prices have been converted to a per-kilogram basis for comparison.
These figures represent reference prices for green coffee beans, rather than prices for instant coffee or delivered coffee in Iran.
The purpose of this analysis is to provide a reliable view of global coffee price trends and support more informed decision-making across the raw-material supply chain.
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Frequently Asked Questions about Coffee Prices
Overall, the coffee market has followed a downward trend over the past month. Arabica prices on the ICE New York exchange declined from approximately 364 cents per pound in late August to around 281 cents per pound on September 30, representing a decrease of about 23%. This followed a peak of approximately 378 cents per pound in early September.
Robusta also declined over the same period, although at a more moderate pace, falling from around $3,600 to approximately $3,350 per metric ton. In summary, both coffee types moved lower over the past month, but Arabica experienced greater volatility and a sharper decline than Robusta.
The main factors influencing coffee prices included progress in Brazil’s harvest and increased supply, improving prospects for the next crop, inventory levels, freight costs, and a reduction in speculative long positions in the futures market. Concerns related to El Niño were among the few factors providing support to the market during this period.
Despite the recent decline, coffee prices remain above the average levels seen in previous years. High price volatility has also increased uncertainty around long-term contracts and supply planning.
Given the structural volatility of the coffee market, supply risk management remains a key priority for industry participants, particularly when planning procurement, pricing, and longer-term supply commitments.
