Global Cocoa Prices
Cocoa Bean Prices in Asia
Cocoa Bean Prices in Africa
Cocoa Price Analysis
Global Cocoa Bean Price Comparison: Africa vs. East Asia
According to the new data presented in the chart, the spot price ratio of African cocoa to Asian cocoa has shown a downward trend in 2025. This ratio, which was around 0.75 at the beginning of the year, has gradually declined and now stands at 0.64.
During the second quarter of the year, a gradual decrease in the ratio was observed, and between June and July, this decline accelerated. The recent drop in the ratio indicates increased pressure on the relative value of African cocoa compared to Asian cocoa.
This downward trend reflects a shift in market balance between the two regions and may be due to factors such as rising demand for Asian cocoa or reduced supply in Africa. Given the current conditions, this ratio is expected to remain volatile in the short term and is unlikely to stabilize soon.
Global Cocoa Bean Price Forecast
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has forecasted that in the 2024–2025 season, there will be a production shortfall of 462,000 tons compared to demand — a figure that represents a significant increase compared to the forecasted deficit for the 2023–2024 season.
This shortage is primarily due to adverse weather conditions, aging cocoa trees, and the spread of pests and diseases in major producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These factors have led to a decline in global cocoa inventories and a sharp rise in prices at the beginning of 2025. However, according to recent data, prices have entered a correction phase after reaching historic highs earlier in the year.
Currently:
The price of African cocoa in the London market has decreased to $5,956.9 per ton.
The price of Asian cocoa in the New York market has risen to $9,493 per ton.
These figures indicate continued supply pressure on African cocoa, while Asian cocoa has shown stronger price resilience due to sustained demand.
Experts still expect cocoa prices in 2025 to stabilize within the range of $8,500 to $9,000 per ton. This forecast is more conservative compared to previous estimates that had targeted $10,000.
Nevertheless, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2025, and the impact on the cost of chocolate products in consumer markets is likely to be noticeable. If unfavorable production conditions persist in Africa, there is also the possibility of another price surge in the medium term.
FAQs
In the past month, the global price of cocoa in the New York market reached $9,493, showing a 2.6% increase compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, in the London market, the price of cocoa decreased to $5,956.9, which represents a 5.09% decline.
Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in cocoa prices:
Supply Constraints: Poor harvests in major cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to reduced supply. For instance, cocoa production in West Africa dropped by 25% for the 2023/24 season.
Climate Conditions: Adverse weather patterns, including droughts and excessive rainfall, have negatively impacted cocoa yields. Climate change-induced droughts have particularly affected crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa.
Market Dynamics: Increased speculative trading in cocoa futures markets has amplified price volatility.
- The rise in cocoa prices has led to increased production costs for chocolate manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers. Some companies have implemented “shrinkflation,” reducing product sizes while maintaining prices, to manage costs. For example, Cadbury increased the price of their Dairy Milk Coins due to rising cocoa costs.