Global Cocoa Prices
Cocoa Bean Prices in Asia
Cocoa Bean Prices in Africa
Cocoa Price Analysis
Global Cocoa Bean Price Comparison: Africa vs. East Asia
According to the latest data presented in the chart, the spot price ratio of cocoa beans from Africa to Asia fluctuated between 0.70 and 0.90 throughout 2024. This ratio experienced ups and downs during the year, reaching above 0.85 at certain points, but entered a downward trend in the second half of the year.
In early 2025, the ratio fluctuated between 0.73 and 0.80, but has since declined and currently stands at around 0.72. This drop indicates that, despite relative stability at the beginning of the year, the value ratio of African to Asian cocoa beans has once again entered a downward trajectory.
Under current conditions, the ratio is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, although West African cocoa continues to trade at a relatively higher value than Asian cocoa in some markets.
Global Cocoa Bean Price Forecast
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has forecasted a production shortfall of 462,000 tons relative to demand for the 2024–2025 season, marking a significant increase compared to the estimated shortfall for the 2023–2024 season.
This production deficit is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions, aging trees, pests, and diseases in key producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These factors have led to reduced cocoa inventories and a significant surge in prices at the beginning of 2025. However, according to recent data, prices have entered a correction phase after reaching historic highs.
Currently:
The cocoa price in the New York market has dropped to $6,055.5.
In the London market, the price has declined to $8,412.
Experts still expect cocoa prices in 2025 to stabilize in the range of $8,500 to $9,000 per ton. This forecast is more conservative compared to earlier projections, which had targeted $10,000.
Nonetheless, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2025, with noticeable effects on the retail prices of chocolate products. Should unfavorable production conditions in Africa persist, there is also a possibility of further price increases in the medium term.
FAQs
In the past month, the global price of cocoa in the New York market dropped to $6,055.5, reflecting a 3.42% decrease compared to the previous month. Similarly, in the London market, the price fell to $8,412, representing a 3.75% decline.
Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in cocoa prices:
Supply Constraints: Poor harvests in major cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to reduced supply. For instance, cocoa production in West Africa dropped by 25% for the 2023/24 season.
Climate Conditions: Adverse weather patterns, including droughts and excessive rainfall, have negatively impacted cocoa yields. Climate change-induced droughts have particularly affected crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa.
Market Dynamics: Increased speculative trading in cocoa futures markets has amplified price volatility.
- The rise in cocoa prices has led to increased production costs for chocolate manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers. Some companies have implemented “shrinkflation,” reducing product sizes while maintaining prices, to manage costs. For example, Cadbury increased the price of their Dairy Milk Coins due to rising cocoa costs.