Global Cocoa Prices
Cocoa Bean Prices in Asia
Cocoa Bean Prices in Africa
Cocoa Price Analysis
Cocoa prices have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, influenced by factors such as adverse weather conditions, supply shortages, and regulatory changes. In 2024, cocoa prices reached their highest levels, with New York futures contracts temporarily hitting $11,000 per ton in March, while London cocoa prices set a new record above £9,000. This price surge was attributed to reduced production from major producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which supply over 70% of the world’s cocoa beans.
However, based on recent data, prices have declined from their peak. Cocoa prices in New York have now dropped to $10,558, showing a slight decrease from the highest levels. Similarly, in the London market, prices have fallen to £9,519. This decline reflects a short-term correction in the market following the significant increases of the past year.
Since September 2022, cocoa prices have risen by more than 175%, but the upward trend now faces challenges. Some forecasts still indicate that prices might approach the historical record of $5,379 per ton set in 1977. Nevertheless, the recent corrections could delay this prediction.
Global Cocoa Bean Price Comparison: Africa vs. East Asia
Global Cocoa Bean Price Forecast
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has forecasted a production shortfall of 462,000 tons relative to demand for the 2023-2024 season, an eightfold increase compared to the shortfall predicted for the 2022-2023 season.
This production deficit is attributed to adverse weather conditions, aging trees, pests, and diseases in major cocoa-producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These factors have led to reduced cocoa inventories and increased prices. According to recent data, prices have temporarily declined after a period of growth, but experts still anticipate that cocoa prices could reach approximately $9,000 to $9,500 per ton by 2025. This forecast is slightly more conservative compared to earlier predictions targeting $10,000 per ton.
Nevertheless, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated in 2025, significantly impacting the cost of chocolate products in consumer markets. If adverse production conditions persist, there is potential for further price increases in the medium term.
FAQs
Last month, the global cocoa price in the New York market reached $10,558, reflecting a 4.02% decrease compared to the previous month. Similarly, in the London market, cocoa prices dropped to £9,519, marking a 3.5% decrease.
Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in cocoa prices:
Supply Constraints: Poor harvests in major cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to reduced supply. For instance, cocoa production in West Africa dropped by 25% for the 2023/24 season.
Climate Conditions: Adverse weather patterns, including droughts and excessive rainfall, have negatively impacted cocoa yields. Climate change-induced droughts have particularly affected crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa.
Market Dynamics: Increased speculative trading in cocoa futures markets has amplified price volatility.
- The rise in cocoa prices has led to increased production costs for chocolate manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers. Some companies have implemented “shrinkflation,” reducing product sizes while maintaining prices, to manage costs. For example, Cadbury increased the price of their Dairy Milk Coins due to rising cocoa costs.