Global Cocoa Prices
Cocoa Bean Prices in Asia
Cocoa Bean Prices in Africa
Cocoa Price Analysis
Global Cocoa Bean Price Comparison: Africa vs. East Asia
Based on the newly presented chart data, the spot price ratio of African to Asian cocoa fluctuated mostly between 0.70 and 0.85 throughout 2024. This ratio followed a downward trend in the first half of the year, reaching its lowest level around September, and then partially recovered with some volatility toward the end of the year.
In 2025, the ratio remained relatively stable between 0.75 and 0.80 at the beginning of the year. However, since the latter part of the first quarter, it has resumed a downward trajectory. Currently, the ratio has declined to approximately 0.72.
This decline indicates that the relative value of African cocoa compared to Asian cocoa has come under pressure and continues to trend downward. Given current conditions, this ratio is expected to remain volatile in the short term, although African cocoa still commands higher demand in certain markets.
Global Cocoa Bean Price Forecast
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has forecasted a production shortfall of 462,000 tons relative to demand for the 2024–2025 season, marking a significant increase compared to the estimated shortfall for the 2023–2024 season.
This production deficit is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions, aging trees, pests, and diseases in key producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These factors have led to reduced cocoa inventories and a significant surge in prices at the beginning of 2025. However, according to recent data, prices have entered a correction phase after reaching historic highs.
Currently:
The cocoa price in the New York market has dropped to $6,611.7.
In the London market, the price has declined to $9,254.
Experts still expect cocoa prices in 2025 to stabilize in the range of $8,500 to $9,000 per ton. This forecast is more conservative compared to earlier projections, which had targeted $10,000.
Nonetheless, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2025, with noticeable effects on the retail prices of chocolate products. Should unfavorable production conditions in Africa persist, there is also a possibility of further price increases in the medium term.
FAQs
Over the past month, the global price of cocoa in the New York market declined to $9,254, reflecting a 3.40% decrease compared to the previous month. Similarly, in the London market, the price fell to $6,611.7, representing a 3.73% decrease.
Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in cocoa prices:
Supply Constraints: Poor harvests in major cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to reduced supply. For instance, cocoa production in West Africa dropped by 25% for the 2023/24 season.
Climate Conditions: Adverse weather patterns, including droughts and excessive rainfall, have negatively impacted cocoa yields. Climate change-induced droughts have particularly affected crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa.
Market Dynamics: Increased speculative trading in cocoa futures markets has amplified price volatility.
- The rise in cocoa prices has led to increased production costs for chocolate manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers. Some companies have implemented “shrinkflation,” reducing product sizes while maintaining prices, to manage costs. For example, Cadbury increased the price of their Dairy Milk Coins due to rising cocoa costs.