Global Cocoa Prices
Cocoa Bean Prices in Asia
Cocoa Bean Prices in Africa
Cocoa Price Analysis
Global Cocoa Bean Price Comparison: Africa vs. East Asia
Based on the latest data presented in the chart, the spot price ratio of cocoa beans in Africa relative to Asia fluctuated between 0.70 and 0.90 throughout 2024. This ratio experienced various changes over the year, surpassing 0.85 at certain points but declining towards the end of the year.
In early 2025, this ratio has been fluctuating between 0.75 and 0.82, and it is currently around 0.75. This indicates that despite last year’s volatility, the value ratio of African cocoa beans relative to Asian cocoa beans has stabilized within a more consistent range.
It is anticipated that cocoa beans in the West African region will continue to trade at a higher value compared to those in Asia.
Global Cocoa Bean Price Forecast
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has forecasted a 462,000-ton production shortfall relative to demand for the 2024-2025 season, marking a significant increase compared to the deficit projected for 2023-2024.
This production shortfall is attributed to adverse weather conditions, aging trees, pests, and diseases in major cocoa-producing countries such as Ivory Coast and Ghana. These factors have led to a decline in cocoa stockpiles and an increase in prices in early 2025. However, according to recent data, prices have experienced a temporary decline following a period of growth. Currently, cocoa prices stand at $6,305.1 per ton in the New York market and $8,409 per ton in London.
Experts still anticipate that cocoa prices will stabilize between $8,500 and $9,000 per ton in 2025. This forecast is more conservative than previous estimates, which had projected prices reaching $10,000 per ton.
Nevertheless, cocoa prices are expected to remain high throughout 2025, significantly impacting the cost of chocolate products in consumer markets. If unfavorable production conditions persist, there remains a possibility of further price increases in the medium term.
FAQs
In the past month, the global cocoa price in the New York market reached $6,466.8, reflecting a 3.42% decline compared to the previous month. Similarly, in the London market, cocoa prices dropped to $8,409, representing a 3.75% decrease.
Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in cocoa prices:
Supply Constraints: Poor harvests in major cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to reduced supply. For instance, cocoa production in West Africa dropped by 25% for the 2023/24 season.
Climate Conditions: Adverse weather patterns, including droughts and excessive rainfall, have negatively impacted cocoa yields. Climate change-induced droughts have particularly affected crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa.
Market Dynamics: Increased speculative trading in cocoa futures markets has amplified price volatility.
- The rise in cocoa prices has led to increased production costs for chocolate manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers. Some companies have implemented “shrinkflation,” reducing product sizes while maintaining prices, to manage costs. For example, Cadbury increased the price of their Dairy Milk Coins due to rising cocoa costs.