Global Palm Oil Prices
Global Palm Oil Price
Global Palm Oil Price Overview
As of early July 2025, the global price of crude palm oil, after a sharp decline in late March, has experienced fluctuations and is currently around $205.22 USD. This drop followed a price surge in the last quarter of 2024 and early 2025, during which prices exceeded $260 USD.
The recent decline is likely due to increased stock levels in key markets, improved supply conditions in major producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, and a temporary dip in demand from major importers like China and India. Despite a partial recovery in prices during May and June, the market remains influenced by factors such as weather conditions, export policies, and price volatility of other vegetable oils, suggesting potential for further short-term fluctuations.
Global Palm Oil Price Drivers and Regional Market Analysis
- Supply Constraints: Seasonal production slowdowns and weather-related disruptions have limited fresh fruit bunch yields, contributing to upward price pressure.
- Robust Demand: Growing consumption in Asia for food and biofuel, combined with resumed economic activities post-pandemic, has bolstered market sentiment.
- Regional Variations: Southeast Asia, the largest producer of palm oil, has seen relatively stronger price gains due to local stock drawdowns. Meanwhile, importing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa face additional shipping and logistics costs, pushing regional prices slightly higher.
Global Palm Oil Price Forecast
Short-Term (Coming Weeks): Following a significant price drop in late Q1 2025 and a partial recovery in May and June, the market is expected to stabilize further in the coming weeks. Given the relatively increased demand in Asian markets and a steady supply, prices are projected to fluctuate within the range of $940 to $1,000 per metric ton.
Medium-Term (Next Few Months): If the recovery in exports from Indonesia and Malaysia continues and inventory levels in consumer markets remain balanced, prices are likely to stabilize within the range of $970 to $1,040 per metric ton. Factors such as exchange rate stability and trade policies of major importers could also play a decisive role.
Long-Term (By End of 2025): In the longer term, climate-related factors such as El Niño, its impact on crop yields in Southeast Asia, and gradually rising demand may lead to price increases. Accordingly, the global price of palm oil is forecasted to reach approximately $1,120 to $1,180 per metric ton by the end of 2025.
Palm Oil Prices FAQs
Over the past month, the global price of palm oil has dropped from around $260 to $205.22, representing a decrease of approximately 21.1%. This significant decline reflects bearish market conditions during this period.
Key factors include increased inventory levels, improved supply in major producing countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, and a temporary decline in global demand—particularly from China and India.
Higher palm oil costs may squeeze profit margins for producers of food products and biodiesel, potentially leading to slightly increased costs for end consumers as well.